中國正成為一個世界級的軍事造船國
隨著時間的推進，中國的造船工業變得更加成熟。這篇文章主要目的是反映中國目前的造船能力（在同一時間亦誇大對美國的威脅），協助美國的武器商人、政客等遊說國會通過更大的戰艦建造預算。基本上只要有利益可圖，西方媒體並不節省對中國軍工發表任何讚美的說話 {:46:}
Source: The Diplomat
Original Title: U.S. Navy Take Notice: China is Becoming a World-Class Military Shipbuilder
By Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson November 01, 2012
China’s military shipyards now are surpassing Western European, Japanese, and Korean military shipbuilders in terms of both the types and numbers of ships they can build. If Beijing prioritizes progress, China’s military shipbuilding technical capabilities can likely become as good as Russia’s are now by 2020 and will near current U.S. shipbuilding technical proficiency levels by 2030. China is now mass producing at least six classes of modern diesel-electric submarines and surface warships, including the new Type 052C “Luyang II” and Type 052D “Luyang III” destroyers now in series production.
Eight key themes, listed sequentially below, characterize China’s rise as a world-class military shipbuilder. For reference, the companies building the warships are China State Shipbuilding Corporation (“CSSC”) and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (“CSIC”).
1. China’s warship buildout thus far supports modernization and replacement, not rapid expansion
Over the past six years, China’s overall fleet of frontline combatants has expanded, but slowly, growing from 172 ships in 2005 to an estimated 221 vessels in 2012. However, the fleet has improved substantially in qualitative terms as newer ships and subs replace older ones. For instance, as Type 052 C/D Luyang-series destroyers, Type 054A Jiangkai II-series frigates, and Type 041 Yuan diesel-electric submarines have come into the fleet, they are allowing the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to steadily retire obsolete platforms like Luda destroyers and Ming submarines.
2. Chinese military shipbuilders are catching up to Russian and U.S. Yards
China’s large state-backed military shipbuilders are approaching their Russian and U.S. peers in terms of the number of warships built. China’s large submarine and surface warship buildout will, in a decade, likely have it become second only to the U.S. in terms of total warships produced since 1990. More importantly, the ramp-up of China’s construction of large warships in recent years will mean the PLA Navy will likely be taking delivery of larger numbers of modern surface combatants and submarines annually than the U.S. Navy.
Measured in terms of warships commissioned since 1990, China is now number three globally and is rapidly gaining on Russia, the number two country. Most of Russia’s post-1990 military ship deliveries simply reflected yards “finishing up” Soviet-era projects.
Chinese yards, in contrast, have come on strong over the past decade, with a big push in submarine construction that began in 2002-03 and a strong pipeline of surface warship deliveries that continues to gain steam to this very day. Chinese military shipyards—in particular the Changxing Island and Hudong Zhonghua yards near Shanghai—are humming with activity, and over the next 2-3 years, China is likely to commission enough large warships to put it second only to the U.S. in terms of large warships built and delivered since 1990.
3. China’s military shipbuilders are using modular mass production techniques
CSSC’s Jiangnan Shipyard is using modular construction methods to build Type 052-series destroyers. Modular construction involves building the ship in “blocks.” This maximizes a shipyard’s productive potential and also provides greater latitude for modifying designs and customizing ships. Modular construction also gives yards the flexibility to either build centers of expertise within the yard or outsource the production of certain components and then import them to the yard for final assembly.
CSSC’s Hudong Zhonghua shipyard also appears to be using modular construction techniques for the Type 071 LPD. The yard has now constructed four of the vessels, two of which are in service and two of which are in the trial/outfitting stage. They have also been able to fabricate the Type 071 hulls faster, with a time gap of nearly four years between the first and second vessels, but only 10 months between vessels two and three, and four months between vessels three and four.
4. China’s military shipyards appear to be sharing design and production information across company lines
Historically, CSIC built all Chinese submarines, but the current production run of Type 041 Yuan-class advanced diesel electric subs has seen at least two boats being built in CSSC’s Jiangnan yard. This suggests submarine construction expertise is growing outside of CSIC. However, there are no indications thus far that CSSC is doing submarine design work, which could mean that Beijing is making the companies and their design institutes share submarine design and construction information. Likewise, the new Type 056 corvette is being built in both CSSC and CSIC shipyards, suggesting that a standardized design and production approach is being shared by both companies.
5. China’s military shipbuilders will be able to indigenously build aircraft carriers
China’s first aircraft carrier, Liaoning, which entered service on September 25th of this year, started as an empty hull and gave CSIC valuable experience in effectively creating an aircraft carrier from the keel up. China has a total of seven shipyards with sufficiently large berths to assemble a carrier hull (three hundred meters or more), and the yards are basically equally dispersed between CSSC and CSIC. These yards are located in Dalian (CSIC), Qingdao (CSIC), Huludao (CSIC), Shanghai (CSSC), and Guangzhou (CSSC).
CSIC Bohai Shipbuilding Heavy Industry complex near Huludao (where China builds its nuclear submarines) is a top candidate due to its large, covered building sheds where carrier parts could be fabricated in modular fashion and out of the view of satellite surveillance. The company says it has the “largest indoor seven-step” ship construction facilities in China. This facility, together with CSSC’s large new Changxing Island yard, and CSIC’s Dalian yard—which fitted out the carrier Liaoning that just entered PLAN service—are the three leading candidates to build China’s indigenous carriers.
6. China will retain a military shipbuilding cost advantage
We project that for at least the next five years, Chinese shipbuilders will have a substantial labor cost advantage over their counterparts in South Korea, Japan, and the U.S. CSSC’s Jiangnan shipyard can likely deliver a Type 052C destroyer for 24% less than it costs Korea’s Hyundai heavy Industries to produce a KDX-III destroyer. Likewise, according to disclosures in the July 2011 issue of Shipborne Weapons, Wuchang shipyard can produce a late model diesel electric sub such as the Type 041 for roughly 47% less than it would cost South Korea’s DSME to make a Type 209 submarine. The lower labor cost in China likely serves as a core driver. This may help explain the larger Chinese cost advantage in building submarines, since advanced submarines can require substantially larger number of man-hours to build than surface ships do.
7. China’s neighbors feel increasingly compelled to augment their naval forces in response to Chinese warship production
South Korea has decided to expand its procurement of advanced diesel-electric submarines to include nine KSS-III 3,000-ton submarines by 2020 and nine 1,800-ton subs by 2018. This acquisition will basically double the size of the country’s current sub force and substantially enhance its capabilities, since the biggest boats in the fleet are currently 1,800-ton vessels. South Korea has also elected to double its Aegis destroyer purchases over the next decade.
Similarly, Vietnam’s maritime friction with China and fear of the PLAN’s growing power is making Hanoi into one of the Russian defense industry’s star customers. Vietnam has ordered six Kilo-class diesel submarines from Russia and is likely to take delivery of its first Kilo by the end of 2012. Hanoi is also adding advanced Russian anti-ship missiles and stealthy Gepard-class missile armed patrol boats to its naval force.
8. China now has the potential to become a significant exporter of diesel submarines and smaller surface warships
China’s shipbuilders are becoming increasingly competitive in terms of the ratio of cost to combat power they can deliver. For instance, the July 2011 issue of Shipborne Weapons reports that China will supply 6 potentially Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP)-equipped submarines to Pakistan for as little as 1/3 the unit price at which European shipyards would be able to supply comparable boats.
With the advent of the Type 041 Yuan-class diesel sub and Type 056 corvette, China now has two platforms for which it is already capable of series production and for which the unit costs are likely to drop significantly in coming years. The export version of Russia’s Steregushiy-class corvette, called Tigr, currently stands at around U.S. $150 million per vessel. As China’s Type 056 production run continues to expand, it would not be a surprise to eventually see the PLAN’s unit cost end up in the U.S. $110-120 million per vessel cost range, which would make the Type 056 a serious export competitor to the Tigr and other smaller Russian warships.
Conclusion
China’s naval shipbuilding industry has advanced to the point that it can series produce modern diesel submarines, landing platform docks (LPDs), destroyers, frigates, corvettes, and fast attack craft, albeit with some imported components for a number of key systems. The ongoing series production of Type 041 SSKs, Type 071 LPDs, Type 052 destroyers, and Type 056 corvettes strongly suggests that China’s military shipbuilders have rapidly assimilated commercial innovations such as modular construction.
Chinese naval shipbuilding faces several challenges moving forward. Most notably, six major questions remain:
1. Does Beijing have the political will to continue devoting substantial and growing resources to naval modernization?
2. Can China achieve requisite technical advances in weapons systems, propulsion, and military electronics?
3. Can China master the technologies needed to build nuclear submarines capable of surviving in a conflict with U.S. and Russian boats?
4. Can it build an aircraft carrier with catapults that would allow it to maximize the strike and air combat capabilities of the J-15 fighter it is likely to carry?
5. Will the Chinese leadership be willing to invest political and financial capital in establishing intensive and realistic training for the PLAN and provide diplomatic support for establishment of sustained access to facilities in key areas such as the Indian Ocean region?
6. Will continued weakness in the global ship market prompt Beijing to capitalize on the availability of shipyard space to further increase the pace of military shipbuilding?
China’s military shipbuilders are showing that they can meet Beijing’s current call for warships and could produce more if given the mandate and the resources. The U.S. strategic rebalancing toward the Asia-Pacific will need more than rhetoric if it is to remain credible in the face of China’s potential to rapidly produce modern warships.
The Pentagon should consider adjusting the U.S. Navy’s ship acquisition programs in response. As Chinese warships become better, the numbers ratio between the PLAN and U.S. Navy combatants will become increasingly important. Given that shipbuilding is an industry where lead times can be many years, now is the time for Washington to begin responding to China’s warship production improvements and prepare strategically for further naval advances that Beijing is likely to unveil over the next 2-3 years....<div class='locked'><em>瀏覽完整內容，請先 <a href='member.php?mod=register'>註冊</a> 或 <a href='javascript:;' onclick="lsSubmit()">登入會員</a></em></div><div></div> 大陸的造船廠在民用船類已經屬于世界級，但在軍用船類領域，至今還有兩個指標性軍艦類別沒有造成，依舊是空白~ 中國的造船速度真的是不容懷疑的~{:49:}
但是戰艦與潛艦方面建造的量的產能應該也不是問題~
但是質的方面就不知道了???
但我確信比台灣強吧~~
天朝主義 發表於 2012-11-1 03:05 PM static/image/common/back.gif
大陸的造船廠在民用船類已經屬于世界級，但在軍用船類領域，至今還有兩個指標性軍艦類別沒有造成，依舊是空 ...
航空母艦和兩棲攻擊艦？
快了，不出兩年必然可以看到。 說不定2年內便會出現核動力航母了呢!!! 說到數量的話,不成問題.中國年年收內不斷上升,錢多得是,不過質方面還是不及美國,俄羅斯等國.<br><br><br><br><br><div></div> 中國軍工造船威力驚人 像下水餃一樣 中國軍方一次都訂4~5艘 有問題再改良 也許這也是512工程之一 不是512工程，是十二五規划（第十二個五年規划），2011年到2015年的發展計划 不過如果在這樣增加船艦的話~美國可能會注意的說咯~
因為太平洋的制海權是在美國的說咯~ 本帖最後由 姜牡雅 於 2012-11-2 12:55 AM 編輯
yastern 發表於 2012-11-1 07:48 PM http://www02.eyny.com/static/image/common/back.gif
中國軍工造船威力驚人 像下水餃一樣 中國軍方一次都訂4~5艘 有問題再改良 也許這也是512工程之一 ...
中共目前的造艦能力很強.同時間同時造艦超過10艘.確實無一國能比. 造船效率是不是有比韓國好.我並無資料..無可評比.韓國就寮寮幾家知名企業在支撐整個韓國經濟..但確實都很大很高技術效能跟國際化..
當中共貧困之時抱怨是因為人口太多拖累國家發展.(因而實行節育一胎化)
因政策改變...現在經濟需求.勞動力又顯現不足.大量人口反成國家發展重要資源!
眾多人口是資源也會是個負擔.全球氣候改變.世界性糧食短缺一定會發生.如一旦...人口越多缺糧問題一發生.引發的併發症會比其他國家更嚴重!
台灣曾經提過移民人口到南美開闢農業生產基地產糧回國.因國內政治因數無疾而終... 在日本跟韓國都早已海外購地產糧以備將來不時! 感嘆台灣政客短視! 當錢再多都買不到糧食才是欲哭無淚!
中國大陸是不是有遠觀計畫就不得而知...
...<div class='locked'><em>瀏覽完整內容，請先 <a href='member.php?mod=register'>註冊</a> 或 <a href='javascript:;' onclick="lsSubmit()">登入會員</a></em></div> 連山寨航母都有了我阿陸仔的功力越來越不能藐視<br><br><br><br><br><div></div> 國家有重大建設或工程~~~~好
增加就業機會，減低失業率..... 姜牡雅 發表於 2012-11-2 12:38 AM static/image/common/back.gif
中共目前的造艦能力很強.同時間同時造艦超過10艘.確實無一國能比. 造船效率是不是有比韓國好.我並無資 ...
我覺得有數量基礎的話，提高質量不是問題。 因為人類進步還有一個重要的因素：經驗
在歐美做過牙的就知道了，有時候西方特級牙科專家做的，還不如中國民間一個野路子老牙醫。 龐大的客戶數量，積累得來的實踐經驗，不是課堂上能學得來的。...<div class='locked'><em>瀏覽完整內容，請先 <a href='member.php?mod=register'>註冊</a> 或 <a href='javascript:;' onclick="lsSubmit()">登入會員</a></em></div> 我想中國的造艦能力應該還有很大的進步空間 海軍工和歐美還是有不少差距啊，承認差距才能追趕。比如航母技术和老美差距巨大，核潛艇技术還不過歐洲老牌帝國英國，人家機敏級核潛艇那是世界級的最先進攻擊核潛艇。 恩恩 略懂
個人覺得 中國的強大 是世界上所有的國家都會受到威脅<br><br><br><br><br><div></div>